Today, the Australian dollar is anticipated to fall down after greatly adding pips to its value during last week’s last day of trading while the Japanese yen is expected to follow in the Aussie’s lead and give way. Friday last week, the pair shot up abruptly to quickly cause the pair to reach their daily high. The foreign exchange market reacted to the very positive release of US’ job data that swiftly changed the direction of most trades in favor of the riskier assets, deeming that this data would be the day’s market mover instead of developments in Europe. The US job data showed through its Non-Farm Employment Change that it introduced 243,000 new jobs to individuals for the month of January, a considerable way to start the year. In addition to that, the Unemployment Rate dwindled down to 8.3 percent after economists predicted the index to remain at the 8.5 percent. These data were enough to significantly improve the condition of the Aussie over the Samurai during last week’s trading.

In Australia today, currency exchanges are foreseen to take a dive given an already released index of a lower inflation signal. The Inflation Gauge released by the Melbourne Institute showed that the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers developed only by 0.2 percent preceded by a figure of 0.5 percent. With a slower rate of growth, the inflation is deemed not strong enough to pressure the central bank to call for a change in their national interest rate thus attracting investors to the region. Thus, the Aussie is expected to falter in today’s trades.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen is expected to gain against the Australian dollar today despite having no economic indicators set to be released today. The Euro debt crisis is the focus of today’s market movers considering the Greek debt stalemate that is looming in the region. This has increased further the concern of not only investors but worldwide leaders as well. With this, safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen are foreseen to take the spotlight in the trades today. Thus, the Samurai is expected to overtake the Aussie today. In conclusion, a short position is deemed plausible in today’s exchanges.

For today’s fundamental analysis, the Euro is foreseen to be on the negative side as indicators appear to pull down the market value of the Euro against the Japanese yen. Last week Friday, the single currency managed to shoot upward as the Italian Preliminary Consumer Price Index showed promising results. The change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers exhibited growth at 0.3 percent, higher than the anticipated figure of economists which is at 0.2 percent. The higher prices of goods and services benefit the region by adding to its overall expenditures.

As for today, the Euro is anticipated to give way to the Japanese yen in response to the upcoming release of its Sentix Investor Confidence index. The said indicator is foreseen to fall yet again for the seventh consecutive month since August of last year. The index is forecasted to fall by 14.8 points for this month of February. If this index remains accurate, then another setback is expected for the European region on top of the already persistent debt crisis predicament the region is experiencing. Therefore, a weaker common currency is awaited today.

On the other hand, a stronger Japanese yen is foreknown to come out today given its reaction to global economic conditions. The Samurai is anticipated to gain after taking into consideration the continued rise in concern regarding the Euro debt crisis.  The Euro debt crisis is the focus of today’s market movers considering the Greek debt stalemate that is engulfing the entire region. This has increased further the concern of not only investors but worldwide leaders as well. With this, safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen are foreseen to take the spotlight in the trades today. Thus, the Euro is expected to make way for the Aussie today. In conclusion, a short position is deemed plausible in today’s exchanges.

Economic indicators in the US served as the fuel in the last Friday’s North American exchanges as the AUDUSD skyrocketed towards the highest level since August. Today, the US dollar is forecasted to pare some losses as the AUDUSD is likely to step backwards.

The 34-month low of the Unemployment Rate of 8.3 percent became the epicenter of the buying frenzy of riskier and higher yielding assets last Friday. The estimate of 150,000 for the January Non-Farm Employment Change was easily beaten by the 243,000 jobs absorbed by the economy in the first month of 2012. The AUDUSD appreciated 0.62 percent more to a 1.0777 price quote.

For today, the AUDUSD is anticipated to slow down. A 0.1 percent decline in the Retail Sales in December likely quelled the strong buying appetite for the Australian dollar and ushered the AUDUSD to a decline in the upcoming North American session. The weakening demand amid huge holiday discounting likely reveals an underlying challenge in Australia.

Meanwhile, economic data in the US for today is sparse. This is anticipated to focus the market spotlight to the response of the interim Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos to the demands of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission which included minimum wage and bonus cuts on its workforce. These measures are likely to be met by fierce opposition from the country which currently has an 18 percent unemployment rate. Pension funds are also required to be trimmed by 35 percent as well as other health care and defense spending programs. Greece is in a recession for the fourth year running and is expected to contract even more this year. Due to this, the risk sentiment is likely to swing to the side of the bears, warranting a short position on the AUDUSD.

Strong economic fundamentals of the US were generally bullish for the Canadian dollar while the situation in the Euro Zone saved the US dollar from total debilitation. The Greenback is forecasted to trade on a mixed trend whereas the Loonie is anticipated to surge.

In spite of a 0.1 percent contraction in the GDP in November and an Unemployment Rate jumping 10 basis points to 7.6 percent in January, the Loonie surged against the Greenback well past the parity mark and scored the best against the Euro by gaining 167 pips and the Swiss franc by 126 pips due to the expansion of the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 54.1 points in January from 53.9 points and 243,000 jobs added in January which trimmed the Unemployment Rate down by 20 basis points to 8.3 percent in the US. The Greenback was flailed by its Asian counterparts, primarily the Australian dollar which appreciated 120 pips and the New Zealand dollar which advanced 118 pips, due to these risk-on sentiment drivers. However, the talks on the second tranche of bailout package for Greece appears to be stripping the market of its confidence on the Euro Zone and caused the Greenback to rally 78 pips versus the Euro and 91 pips opposite the Swissie.

Today, the Canadian dollar is likely to wane. After rising 59.9 points in November and 63.5 points in December, the Ivey PMI is anticipated to register at 58.6 points in January. This is believed to reflect the weakening of the Canadian economy amid the ongoing crisis in Europe. Meanwhile, the Greenback is expected to retreat. Greek leaders are awaited to sign a deal with the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and the European Central Bank for its EUR130 Billion rescue fund.

On Tuesday, an appreciation of the Loonie is expected. Following a 3.6 percent decline in November, the Building Permits is estimated to have gone up 0.8 percent in December. This affirms the impact of the low-interest rate environment on the demand for real estate buildings and investments. In addition, Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem is awaited to speak at the Rotman Institute for International Business in Toronto. Volatility in the trades for the Loonie is expected. Meanwhile in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is anticipated to testify before the Senate Budget Committee. Like in his speech before the House Budget Committee, the Fed’s extension of the pledge on keeping the near-zero interest rates is foreseen to be defended considering the threats to the economy. Moreover, hints of the scale and time of the new round of asset purchases are awaited to be dropped. In addition, Consumer Credit is anticipated to be published and is forecasted to print at USD7.7 Billion for the month of December. The continuous increase likely boosted the consumer confidence as the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is estimated to increase to 48.3 points in February from 47.5 points in the previous month. Risk sentiment wise, the Greenback is foreseen to depreciate.

Halfway through the week, the Housing Starts figure from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is awaited to be released. After gaining 209,000, 186,000, and 200,000 in the last three months of the year, the Housing Starts is foreseen to stand at 192,000 in January, amid the consistent demand for housing units. Thus, the Loonie is perceived to rise.

On Thursday, the New Housing Price Index is awaited to be published. The Statistics Canada report is forecasted to have increased 0.5 percent in December, faster than the price growth in the three previous months of 0.3 percent, 0.2 percent, and 0.2 percent. Continuous demand in the housing sector is likely to boost the Loonie. Meanwhile, the rising Unemployment Claims is believed to heighten the demand for the Greenback. After printing at 367,000 in the prior week, the initial jobless claims report is estimated to stand at 390,000 last week. In addition, Wholesale Inventories is believed to have increased 0.4 percent in December after rising 0.1 percent in the month before as the Retail Sales during the month failed to meet revenue expectations.

Finally on Friday, the trade figures from the two countries are awaited to be released. For Canada, the Trade Balance is estimated to be at CAD0.7 Billion in December, after a trade surplus of CAD1.1 Billion in November and a trade deficit of CAD0.5 Billion in October. Fluctuations in the prices of commodities, primarily crude oil, likely lessened the trade excess. Nevertheless, the Trade Balance is still in black, pushing the Loonie higher. On the other hand, the US is estimated to have incurred USD48.2 Billion of trade deficit in December, wider than the negative Trade Balance of 47.8 Billion in November and USD43.3 Billion in October. In addition, the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment index of the University of Michigan is awaited to be published. The monthly index is believed to have peaked in January at 75.0 points, as it is now forecasted to stand at 74.3 points in February. With these two, the Greenback is more likely to rise.